RIDING · OCTOBER 5, 2026 ELECTION
René-Lévesque
127QC projection for René-Lévesque as of October 1, 2026: the PQ leads with 42.9% of the estimated vote, ahead of the CAQ (28.0%) and the PCQ (16.9%). In the model’s 5,000 simulations, the PQ wins 92% of the time.
LeadingPQ
Margin14.9 points
Win probability92%
Poll-based projection. It describes the race today; the October 5 result may differ.
Candidates and estimated support
PQ Odette Lavigne
42.9%Win: 92%CAQ Yves Montigny incumbent
28.0%Win: 8%PCQ Esther Besrest
16.9%Win: < 1%PLQ William Huynh-Jan
7.7%Win: < 1%QS Philippe C.-Boudreau
4.3%Win: < 1%The 2022 result
| Party | 2022 | 2026 projection | Change (points) |
|---|---|---|---|
| PQ | 21.2 | 42.9 | +21.8 |
| CAQ | 58.9 | 28.0 | −30.9 |
| PCQ | 10.1 | 16.9 | +6.8 |
| PLQ | 1.6 | 7.7 | +6.1 |
| QS | 7.6 | 4.3 | −3.3 |
Boundaries unchanged in 2026: official 2022 results. Sources: Élections Québec; transposition to the 2026 map by Kyle Hutton (Blunt Objects).
Neighbouring ridings
- Charlevoix–Côte-de-BeaupréPQ 6.9-pt margin
- DubucPQ 13.5-pt margin
- DuplessisPQ 22.4-pt margin
- Matane-Matapédia-MitisPQ 72.3-pt margin
- Rivière-du-Loup–Témiscouata–Les BasquesPQ 13.6-pt margin
How to read these numbers
The estimated vote comes from the model’s central scenario. The probability is the share of the 5,000 simulations won by each party; it remains experimental and depends on the model’s assumptions.
Show on the interactive map · Read the method · All ridings
Projection of October 1, 2026 · polls as of October 1 · 5,000 simulations.