RIDING · OCTOBER 5, 2026 ELECTION
Rivière-du-Loup–Témiscouata–Les Basques
127QC projection for Rivière-du-Loup–Témiscouata–Les Basques as of October 1, 2026: the PQ leads with 37.0% of the estimated vote, ahead of the CAQ (23.3%) and the PCQ (18.2%). In the model’s 5,000 simulations, the PQ wins 92% of the time.
LeadingPQ
Margin13.6 points
Win probability92%
Poll-based projection. It describes the race today; the October 5 result may differ.
Candidates and estimated support
PQ Ariane Boyer
37.0%Win: 92%CAQ Amélie Dionne incumbent
23.3%Win: 8%PCQ Louise Moreault
18.2%Win: < 1%PLQ Karine Malenfant
11.1%Win: < 1%QS Pierre-Erik Isabelle
10.2%Win: < 1%The 2022 result
| Party | 2022 | 2026 projection | Change (points) |
|---|---|---|---|
| PQ | 17.6 | 37.0 | +19.4 |
| CAQ | 52.1 | 23.3 | −28.7 |
| PCQ | 11.3 | 18.2 | +6.9 |
| PLQ | 4.0 | 11.1 | +7.1 |
| QS | 14.6 | 10.2 | −4.4 |
Boundaries unchanged in 2026: official 2022 results. Sources: Élections Québec; transposition to the 2026 map by Kyle Hutton (Blunt Objects).
Neighbouring ridings
- Côte-du-SudPCQ 3.9-pt margin
- René-LévesquePQ 14.9-pt margin
- RimouskiPQ 36.4-pt margin
How to read these numbers
The estimated vote comes from the model’s central scenario. The probability is the share of the 5,000 simulations won by each party; it remains experimental and depends on the model’s assumptions.
Show on the interactive map · Read the method · All ridings
Projection of October 1, 2026 · polls as of October 1 · 5,000 simulations.