RIDING · OCTOBER 5, 2026 ELECTION
Côte-du-Sud
127QC projection for Côte-du-Sud as of October 1, 2026: the PCQ leads with 32.2% of the estimated vote, ahead of the PQ (28.3%) and the CAQ (19.8%). In the model’s 5,000 simulations, the PCQ wins 67% of the time.
LeadingPCQ
Margin3.9 points
Win probability67%
Poll-based projection. It describes the race today; the October 5 result may differ.
Candidates and estimated support
PCQ Frédéric Poulin
32.2%Win: 67%PQ Valérie Hamel
28.3%Win: 27%CAQ Mathieu Rivest incumbent
19.8%Win: 5%PLQ Nancy St-Pierre
14.0%Win: < 1%QS Jordan Veillette
5.5%Win: < 1%The 2022 result
| Party | 2022 | 2026 projection | Change (points) |
|---|---|---|---|
| PCQ | 23.4 | 32.2 | +8.8 |
| PQ | 12.8 | 28.3 | +15.6 |
| CAQ | 47.7 | 19.8 | −27.9 |
| PLQ | 6.3 | 14.0 | +7.7 |
| QS | 9.3 | 5.5 | −3.8 |
Boundaries unchanged in 2026: official 2022 results. Sources: Élections Québec; transposition to the 2026 map by Kyle Hutton (Blunt Objects).
Neighbouring ridings
- BellechassePCQ 24.4-pt margin
- Charlevoix–Côte-de-BeaupréPQ 6.9-pt margin
- Rivière-du-Loup–Témiscouata–Les BasquesPQ 13.6-pt margin
How to read these numbers
The estimated vote comes from the model’s central scenario. The probability is the share of the 5,000 simulations won by each party; it remains experimental and depends on the model’s assumptions.
Show on the interactive map · Read the method · All ridings
Projection of October 1, 2026 · polls as of October 1 · 5,000 simulations.