RIDING · OCTOBER 5, 2026 ELECTION
Îles-de-la-Madeleine
127QC projection for Îles-de-la-Madeleine as of October 1, 2026: the PQ leads with 69.2% of the estimated vote, ahead of the PLQ (13.1%) and the CAQ (11.0%). In the model’s 5,000 simulations, the PQ wins > 99% of the time.
LeadingPQ
Margin56.1 points
Win probability> 99%
Poll-based projection. It describes the race today; the October 5 result may differ.
Candidates and estimated support
PQ Joël Arseneau incumbent
69.2%Win: > 99%PLQ Gil Thériault
13.1%Win: < 1%CAQ Linda Lebel
11.0%Win: < 1%PCQ Evan Leblanc
4.9%Win: < 1%QS Zachary Jean
1.7%Win: < 1%The 2022 result
| Party | 2022 | 2026 projection | Change (points) |
|---|---|---|---|
| PQ | 46.4 | 69.2 | +22.9 |
| PLQ | 7.2 | 13.1 | +5.9 |
| CAQ | 39.9 | 11.0 | −28.9 |
| PCQ | 1.1 | 4.9 | +3.8 |
| QS | 5.4 | 1.7 | −3.7 |
Boundaries unchanged in 2026: official 2022 results. Sources: Élections Québec; transposition to the 2026 map by Kyle Hutton (Blunt Objects).
Neighbouring ridings
- DuplessisPQ 22.4-pt margin
How to read these numbers
The estimated vote comes from the model’s central scenario. The probability is the share of the 5,000 simulations won by each party; it remains experimental and depends on the model’s assumptions.
Show on the interactive map · Read the method · All ridings
Projection of October 1, 2026 · polls as of October 1 · 5,000 simulations.