RIDING · OCTOBER 5, 2026 ELECTION

UngavaClose race

127QC projection for Ungava as of October 1, 2026: the PLQ leads with 30.0% of the estimated vote, ahead of the PQ (27.8%) and Québec solidaire (17.7%). In the model’s 5,000 simulations, the PLQ wins 62% of the time. It is a close race: fewer than 3 points separate the top two parties.

LeadingPLQ

Margin2.3 points

Win probability62%

Poll-based projection. It describes the race today; the October 5 result may differ.

Candidates and estimated support

PLQ Sandrine Rioux

30.0%Win: 62%

PQ Sonia Caron

27.8%Win: 35%

QS Antoine Côté

17.7%Win: 2%

PCQ Marc Damant

14.4%Win: 1%

CAQ Amélie Béchard

10.1%Win: 1%

The 2022 result

Party	2022	2026 projection	Change (points)
PLQ	18.2	30.0	+11.8
PQ	12.6	27.8	+15.2
QS	24.2	17.7	−6.5
PCQ	8.8	14.4	+5.7
CAQ	36.3	10.1	−26.2

Boundaries unchanged in 2026: official 2022 results. Sources: Élections Québec; transposition to the 2026 map by Kyle Hutton (Blunt Objects).

Neighbouring ridings

Abitibi-OuestPQ 21.2-pt margin
DubucPQ 13.5-pt margin
DuplessisPQ 22.4-pt margin
Lac-Saint-JeanPQ 28.5-pt margin
Laviolette–Saint-MauricePQ 9.5-pt margin
RobervalPQ 18.6-pt margin

How to read these numbers

The estimated vote comes from the model’s central scenario. The probability is the share of the 5,000 simulations won by each party; it remains experimental and depends on the model’s assumptions.

Show on the interactive map · Read the method · All ridings

Projection of October 1, 2026 · polls as of October 1 · 5,000 simulations.