RIDING · OCTOBER 5, 2026 ELECTION
Abitibi-Ouest
127QC projection for Abitibi-Ouest as of October 1, 2026: the PQ leads with 40.4% of the estimated vote, ahead of the CAQ (19.2%) and the PCQ (16.4%). In the model’s 5,000 simulations, the PQ wins 98% of the time.
LeadingPQ
Margin21.2 points
Win probability98%
Poll-based projection. It describes the race today; the October 5 result may differ.
Candidates and estimated support
PQ Sébastien D'Astous
40.4%Win: 98%CAQ Suzanne Blais incumbent
19.2%Win: 2%PCQ Daniel Guillemette
16.4%Win: < 1%PLQ Marc-André Fortin
12.4%Win: < 1%QS Joanie Bolduc
11.3%Win: < 1%The 2022 result
| Party | 2022 | 2026 projection | Change (points) |
|---|---|---|---|
| PQ | 20.8 | 40.4 | +19.7 |
| CAQ | 46.7 | 19.2 | −27.5 |
| PCQ | 10.3 | 16.4 | +6.1 |
| PLQ | 5.2 | 12.4 | +7.3 |
| QS | 16.3 | 11.3 | −5.0 |
Boundaries unchanged in 2026: official 2022 results. Sources: Élections Québec; transposition to the 2026 map by Kyle Hutton (Blunt Objects).
Neighbouring ridings
- Abitibi-EstPQ 2.3-pt margin
- Rouyn-Noranda–TémiscaminguePQ 3.1-pt margin
- UngavaPLQ 2.3-pt margin
How to read these numbers
The estimated vote comes from the model’s central scenario. The probability is the share of the 5,000 simulations won by each party; it remains experimental and depends on the model’s assumptions.
Show on the interactive map · Read the method · All ridings
Projection of October 1, 2026 · polls as of October 1 · 5,000 simulations.