RIDING · OCTOBER 5, 2026 ELECTION

Abitibi-EstClose race

127QC projection for Abitibi-Est as of October 1, 2026: the PQ leads with 28.4% of the estimated vote, ahead of the PLQ (26.1%) and the PCQ (18.9%). In the model’s 5,000 simulations, the PQ wins 56% of the time. It is a close race: fewer than 3 points separate the top two parties.

LeadingPQ

Margin2.3 points

Win probability56%

Poll-based projection. It describes the race today; the October 5 result may differ.

Candidates and estimated support

PQ Stéphane Tremblay

28.4%Win: 56%

PLQ Pierre Dufour incumbent

26.1%Win: 36%

PCQ Jean-Philip Girard

18.9%Win: 2%

CAQ Manon Barbe

17.2%Win: 6%

QS Sara Germain

9.3%Win: < 1%

The 2022 result

Party	2022	2026 projection	Change (points)
PQ	12.4	28.4	+16.0
PLQ	14.7	26.1	+11.4
PCQ	12.0	18.9	+6.9
CAQ	47.2	17.2	−29.9
QS	13.7	9.3	−4.4

Boundaries unchanged in 2026: official 2022 results. Sources: Élections Québec; transposition to the 2026 map by Kyle Hutton (Blunt Objects).

Neighbouring ridings

Abitibi-OuestPQ 21.2-pt margin
GatineauPLQ 8.8-pt margin
PontiacPLQ 41.3-pt margin
Rouyn-Noranda–TémiscaminguePQ 3.1-pt margin

How to read these numbers

The estimated vote comes from the model’s central scenario. The probability is the share of the 5,000 simulations won by each party; it remains experimental and depends on the model’s assumptions.

Show on the interactive map · Read the method · All ridings

Projection of October 1, 2026 · polls as of October 1 · 5,000 simulations.