RIDING · OCTOBER 5, 2026 ELECTION
Pontiac
127QC projection for Pontiac as of October 1, 2026: the PLQ leads with 58.2% of the estimated vote, ahead of the PQ (16.9%) and the PCQ (14.9%). In the model’s 5,000 simulations, the PLQ wins > 99% of the time.
LeadingPLQ
Margin41.3 points
Win probability> 99%
Poll-based projection. It describes the race today; the October 5 result may differ.
Candidates and estimated support
PLQ André Fortin incumbent
58.2%Win: > 99%PQ Marcela Cazas
16.9%Win: < 1%PCQ Osmar Llanos Martinez
14.9%Win: < 1%QS Bianca Baldo
5.3%Win: < 1%CAQ Mariana Mefleh
2.8%Win: < 1%The 2022 result
| Party | 2022 | 2026 projection | Change (points) |
|---|---|---|---|
| PLQ | 43.7 | 58.2 | +14.5 |
| PQ | 6.6 | 16.9 | +10.2 |
| PCQ | 10.9 | 14.9 | +4.0 |
| QS | 10.3 | 5.3 | −5.0 |
| CAQ | 24.7 | 2.8 | −21.9 |
Boundaries unchanged in 2026: official 2022 results. Sources: Élections Québec; transposition to the 2026 map by Kyle Hutton (Blunt Objects).
Neighbouring ridings
- Abitibi-EstPQ 2.3-pt margin
- GatineauPLQ 8.8-pt margin
- HullPLQ 15.4-pt margin
- Rouyn-Noranda–TémiscaminguePQ 3.1-pt margin
How to read these numbers
The estimated vote comes from the model’s central scenario. The probability is the share of the 5,000 simulations won by each party; it remains experimental and depends on the model’s assumptions.
Show on the interactive map · Read the method · All ridings
Projection of October 1, 2026 · polls as of October 1 · 5,000 simulations.