RIDING · OCTOBER 5, 2026 ELECTION

Gatineau

127QC projection for Gatineau as of October 1, 2026: the PLQ leads with 32.8% of the estimated vote, ahead of the PQ (24.0%) and the PCQ (17.7%). In the model’s 5,000 simulations, the PLQ wins 80% of the time.

LeadingPLQ

Margin8.8 points

Win probability80%

Poll-based projection. It describes the race today; the October 5 result may differ.

Candidates and estimated support

PLQ David Logue

32.8%Win: 80%

PQ Raphaël Déry

24.0%Win: 12%

PCQ Ogbognon Bertin Aboussou

17.7%Win: 2%

CAQ William Robertson

17.4%Win: 5%

QS Emmanuelle Tremblay

7.6%Win: < 1%

The 2022 result

Party	2022	2026 projection	Change (points)
PLQ	19.4	32.8	+13.4
PQ	9.5	24.0	+14.5
PCQ	11.0	17.7	+6.7
CAQ	47.3	17.4	−29.9
QS	11.7	7.6	−4.0

Boundaries changed with the 2026 electoral map: the 2022 results are estimated on the new territory. Sources: Élections Québec; transposition to the 2026 map by Kyle Hutton (Blunt Objects).

Neighbouring ridings

Abitibi-EstPQ 2.3-pt margin
ChapleauPLQ 0.4-pt margin
HullPLQ 15.4-pt margin
LabellePQ 18.5-pt margin
PapineauPQ 4.1-pt margin
PontiacPLQ 41.3-pt margin

How to read these numbers

The estimated vote comes from the model’s central scenario. The probability is the share of the 5,000 simulations won by each party; it remains experimental and depends on the model’s assumptions.

Show on the interactive map · Read the method · All ridings

Projection of October 1, 2026 · polls as of October 1 · 5,000 simulations.