RIDING · OCTOBER 5, 2026 ELECTION
ChapleauClose race
127QC projection for Chapleau as of October 1, 2026: the PLQ leads with 24.9% of the estimated vote, ahead of the PQ (24.5%) and the CAQ (23.7%). In the model’s 5,000 simulations, the PLQ wins 38% of the time. It is a close race: fewer than 3 points separate the top two parties.
Candidates and estimated support
The 2022 result
| Party | 2022 | 2026 projection | Change (points) |
|---|---|---|---|
| PLQ | 13.4 | 24.9 | +11.5 |
| PQ | 9.5 | 24.5 | +15.0 |
| CAQ | 52.3 | 23.7 | −28.5 |
| PCQ | 10.4 | 17.2 | +6.9 |
| QS | 13.3 | 9.2 | −4.1 |
Boundaries changed with the 2026 electoral map: the 2022 results are estimated on the new territory. Sources: Élections Québec; transposition to the 2026 map by Kyle Hutton (Blunt Objects).
Neighbouring ridings
How to read these numbers
The estimated vote comes from the model’s central scenario. The probability is the share of the 5,000 simulations won by each party; it remains experimental and depends on the model’s assumptions.
Show on the interactive map · Read the method · All ridings
Projection of October 1, 2026 · polls as of October 1 · 5,000 simulations.