RIDING · OCTOBER 5, 2026 ELECTION
Papineau
127QC projection for Papineau as of October 1, 2026: the PQ leads with 27.0% of the estimated vote, ahead of the CAQ (22.9%) and the PCQ (21.9%). In the model’s 5,000 simulations, the PQ wins 55% of the time.
Candidates and estimated support
The 2022 result
| Party | 2022 | 2026 projection | Change (points) |
|---|---|---|---|
| PQ | 10.3 | 27.0 | +16.6 |
| CAQ | 53.6 | 22.9 | −30.7 |
| PCQ | 13.3 | 21.9 | +8.6 |
| PLQ | 8.0 | 17.8 | +9.9 |
| QS | 13.4 | 9.7 | −3.6 |
Boundaries changed with the 2026 electoral map: the 2022 results are estimated on the new territory. Sources: Élections Québec; transposition to the 2026 map by Kyle Hutton (Blunt Objects).
Neighbouring ridings
- ArgenteuilPQ 10.1-pt margin
- ChapleauPLQ 0.4-pt margin
- GatineauPLQ 8.8-pt margin
- LabellePQ 18.5-pt margin
How to read these numbers
The estimated vote comes from the model’s central scenario. The probability is the share of the 5,000 simulations won by each party; it remains experimental and depends on the model’s assumptions.
Show on the interactive map · Read the method · All ridings
Projection of October 1, 2026 · polls as of October 1 · 5,000 simulations.