RIDING · OCTOBER 5, 2026 ELECTION
Rouyn-Noranda–Témiscamingue
127QC projection for Rouyn-Noranda–Témiscamingue as of October 1, 2026: the PQ leads with 29.0% of the estimated vote, ahead of Québec solidaire (25.9%) and the CAQ (17.8%). In the model’s 5,000 simulations, the PQ wins 61% of the time.
LeadingPQ
Margin3.1 points
Win probability61%
Poll-based projection. It describes the race today; the October 5 result may differ.
Candidates and estimated support
PQ Diane Dallaire
29.0%Win: 61%QS France Marion
25.9%Win: 33%CAQ Béatrice Déry
17.8%Win: 5%PCQ Francis Lapointe
14.6%Win: 1%PLQ Leanne Loney
12.5%Win: < 1%The 2022 result
| Party | 2022 | 2026 projection | Change (points) |
|---|---|---|---|
| PQ | 11.2 | 29.0 | +17.8 |
| QS | 30.9 | 25.9 | −5.0 |
| CAQ | 45.2 | 17.8 | −27.4 |
| PCQ | 7.7 | 14.6 | +7.0 |
| PLQ | 4.4 | 12.5 | +8.1 |
Boundaries unchanged in 2026: official 2022 results. Sources: Élections Québec; transposition to the 2026 map by Kyle Hutton (Blunt Objects).
Neighbouring ridings
- Abitibi-EstPQ 2.3-pt margin
- Abitibi-OuestPQ 21.2-pt margin
- PontiacPLQ 41.3-pt margin
How to read these numbers
The estimated vote comes from the model’s central scenario. The probability is the share of the 5,000 simulations won by each party; it remains experimental and depends on the model’s assumptions.
Show on the interactive map · Read the method · All ridings
Projection of October 1, 2026 · polls as of October 1 · 5,000 simulations.