RIDING · OCTOBER 5, 2026 ELECTION

ChamplainClose race

127QC projection for Champlain as of October 1, 2026: the PQ leads with 29.5% of the estimated vote, ahead of the PCQ (27.3%) and the CAQ (24.1%). In the model’s 5,000 simulations, the PQ wins 52% of the time. It is a close race: fewer than 3 points separate the top two parties.

LeadingPQ

Margin2.2 points

Win probability52%

Poll-based projection. It describes the race today; the October 5 result may differ.

Candidates and estimated support

PQ René Branchaud

29.5%Win: 52%

PCQ Adriana Szalontai

27.3%Win: 30%

CAQ Marie-Eve Myrand

24.1%Win: 18%

PLQ Annie Pronovost

13.2%Win: < 1%

QS Katherine Heckersbruch

5.7%Win: < 1%

The 2022 result

Party	2022	2026 projection	Change (points)
PQ	12.0	29.5	+17.5
PCQ	17.6	27.3	+9.7
CAQ	55.9	24.1	−31.8
PLQ	5.1	13.2	+8.2
QS	9.0	5.7	−3.3

Boundaries unchanged in 2026: official 2022 results. Sources: Élections Québec; transposition to the 2026 map by Kyle Hutton (Blunt Objects).

Neighbouring ridings

Laviolette–Saint-MauricePQ 9.5-pt margin
Nicolet-BécancourPQ 1.5-pt margin
PortneufPCQ 18.2-pt margin
Trois-RivièresPQ 9.4-pt margin

How to read these numbers

The estimated vote comes from the model’s central scenario. The probability is the share of the 5,000 simulations won by each party; it remains experimental and depends on the model’s assumptions.

Show on the interactive map · Read the method · All ridings

Projection of October 1, 2026 · polls as of October 1 · 5,000 simulations.