RIDING · OCTOBER 5, 2026 ELECTION
Trois-Rivières
127QC projection for Trois-Rivières as of October 1, 2026: the PQ leads with 32.1% of the estimated vote, ahead of the CAQ (22.7%) and the PCQ (19.6%). In the model’s 5,000 simulations, the PQ wins 85% of the time.
LeadingPQ
Margin9.4 points
Win probability85%
Poll-based projection. It describes the race today; the October 5 result may differ.
Candidates and estimated support
PQ Jean Pellerin
32.1%Win: 85%CAQ Christine Fréchette incumbent
22.7%Win: 13%PCQ Jonathan Couturier
19.6%Win: 2%PLQ Valérie Renaud-Martin
13.4%Win: < 1%QS Steven Roy Cullen
11.8%Win: < 1%The 2022 result
| Party | 2022 | 2026 projection | Change (points) |
|---|---|---|---|
| PQ | 14.3 | 32.1 | +17.8 |
| CAQ | 50.8 | 22.7 | −28.1 |
| PCQ | 12.3 | 19.6 | +7.4 |
| PLQ | 5.5 | 13.4 | +7.9 |
| QS | 16.4 | 11.8 | −4.5 |
Boundaries unchanged in 2026: official 2022 results. Sources: Élections Québec; transposition to the 2026 map by Kyle Hutton (Blunt Objects).
Neighbouring ridings
- ChamplainPQ 2.2-pt margin
- MaskinongéPQ 7.3-pt margin
How to read these numbers
The estimated vote comes from the model’s central scenario. The probability is the share of the 5,000 simulations won by each party; it remains experimental and depends on the model’s assumptions.
Show on the interactive map · Read the method · All ridings
Projection of October 1, 2026 · polls as of October 1 · 5,000 simulations.