RIDING · OCTOBER 5, 2026 ELECTION

Nicolet-BécancourClose race

127QC projection for Nicolet-Bécancour as of October 1, 2026: the PQ leads with 33.2% of the estimated vote, ahead of the PCQ (31.7%) and the CAQ (19.2%). In the model’s 5,000 simulations, the PQ wins 56% of the time. It is a close race: fewer than 3 points separate the top two parties.

LeadingPQ

Margin1.5 points

Win probability56%

Poll-based projection. It describes the race today; the October 5 result may differ.

Candidates and estimated support

PQ Jérôme Gagnon

33.2%Win: 56%

PCQ Guillaume Langlois

31.7%Win: 41%

CAQ Donald Martel incumbent

19.2%Win: 3%

PLQ Sophie Martinbeault

11.4%Win: < 1%

QS Milan Codebecq-Pérusse

4.5%Win: < 1%

The 2022 result

Party	2022	2026 projection	Change (points)
PQ	16.4	33.2	+16.8
PCQ	23.4	31.7	+8.2
CAQ	47.3	19.2	−28.1
PLQ	4.6	11.4	+6.8
QS	8.2	4.5	−3.7

Boundaries changed with the 2026 electoral map: the 2022 results are estimated on the new territory. Sources: Élections Québec; transposition to the 2026 map by Kyle Hutton (Blunt Objects).

Neighbouring ridings

Arthabaska-L’ÉrablePCQ 9.8-pt margin
BerthierPQ 22.5-pt margin
ChamplainPQ 2.2-pt margin
Drummond–Bois-FrancsPQ 5.9-pt margin
Lotbinière-FrontenacPCQ 21.0-pt margin
Marie-Lacoste-Gérin-LajoiePQ 8.9-pt margin
MaskinongéPQ 7.3-pt margin
RichelieuPQ 16.2-pt margin

How to read these numbers

The estimated vote comes from the model’s central scenario. The probability is the share of the 5,000 simulations won by each party; it remains experimental and depends on the model’s assumptions.

Show on the interactive map · Read the method · All ridings

Projection of October 1, 2026 · polls as of October 1 · 5,000 simulations.