RIDING · OCTOBER 5, 2026 ELECTION

Arthabaska-L’Érable

127QC projection for Arthabaska-L’Érable as of October 1, 2026: the PCQ leads with 35.6% of the estimated vote, ahead of the PQ (25.8%) and the CAQ (21.4%). In the model’s 5,000 simulations, the PCQ wins 84% of the time.

LeadingPCQ

Margin9.8 points

Win probability84%

Poll-based projection. It describes the race today; the October 5 result may differ.

Candidates and estimated support

PCQ Tarek Henoud

35.6%Win: 84%

PQ Alex Boissonneault incumbent

25.8%Win: 10%

CAQ Keven Brasseur

21.4%Win: 6%

PLQ Thomas Guérette

11.1%Win: < 1%

QS Stéphanie Poirier

5.9%Win: < 1%

The 2022 result

Party	2022	2026 projection	Change (points)
PCQ	24.2	35.6	+11.4
PQ	10.0	25.8	+15.8
CAQ	52.2	21.4	−30.8
PLQ	3.8	11.1	+7.3
QS	9.2	5.9	−3.4

Boundaries changed with the 2026 electoral map: the 2022 results are estimated on the new territory. Sources: Élections Québec; transposition to the 2026 map by Kyle Hutton (Blunt Objects).

Neighbouring ridings

Drummond–Bois-FrancsPQ 5.9-pt margin
Lotbinière-FrontenacPCQ 21.0-pt margin
Nicolet-BécancourPQ 1.5-pt margin

How to read these numbers

The estimated vote comes from the model’s central scenario. The probability is the share of the 5,000 simulations won by each party; it remains experimental and depends on the model’s assumptions.

Show on the interactive map · Read the method · All ridings

Projection of October 1, 2026 · polls as of October 1 · 5,000 simulations.