RIDING · OCTOBER 5, 2026 ELECTION
Vanier-Les RivièresClose race
127QC projection for Vanier-Les Rivières as of October 1, 2026: the PCQ leads with 28.2% of the estimated vote, ahead of the PQ (27.8%) and the CAQ (20.6%). In the model’s 5,000 simulations, the PCQ wins 46% of the time. It is a close race: fewer than 3 points separate the top two parties.
Candidates and estimated support
The 2022 result
| Party | 2022 | 2026 projection | Change (points) |
|---|---|---|---|
| PCQ | 19.2 | 28.2 | +9.0 |
| PQ | 13.2 | 27.8 | +14.6 |
| CAQ | 47.9 | 20.6 | −27.3 |
| PLQ | 6.2 | 14.8 | +8.5 |
| QS | 11.9 | 8.0 | −3.9 |
Boundaries changed with the 2026 electoral map: the 2022 results are estimated on the new territory. Sources: Élections Québec; transposition to the 2026 map by Kyle Hutton (Blunt Objects).
Neighbouring ridings
- ChauveauPCQ 17.4-pt margin
- Jean-TalonPQ 10.0-pt margin
- La PeltriePCQ 16.0-pt margin
- TaschereauPQ 7.1-pt margin
How to read these numbers
The estimated vote comes from the model’s central scenario. The probability is the share of the 5,000 simulations won by each party; it remains experimental and depends on the model’s assumptions.
Show on the interactive map · Read the method · All ridings
Projection of October 1, 2026 · polls as of October 1 · 5,000 simulations.