RIDING · OCTOBER 5, 2026 ELECTION
Beauce-Sud
127QC projection for Beauce-Sud as of October 1, 2026: the PCQ leads with 56.2% of the estimated vote, ahead of the CAQ (17.7%) and the PQ (15.0%). In the model’s 5,000 simulations, the PCQ wins > 99% of the time.
LeadingPCQ
Margin38.4 points
Win probability> 99%
Poll-based projection. It describes the race today; the October 5 result may differ.
Candidates and estimated support
PCQ Jonathan Poulin
56.2%Win: > 99%CAQ Samuel Poulin incumbent
17.7%Win: < 1%PQ Angèle Bouffard
15.0%Win: < 1%PLQ Alvaro Peressutti
9.1%Win: < 1%QS Amélie Carrier
1.7%Win: < 1%The 2022 result
| Party | 2022 | 2026 projection | Change (points) |
|---|---|---|---|
| PCQ | 43.4 | 56.2 | +12.8 |
| CAQ | 44.6 | 17.7 | −26.8 |
| PQ | 4.0 | 15.0 | +11.0 |
| PLQ | 2.8 | 9.1 | +6.3 |
| QS | 4.4 | 1.7 | −2.6 |
Boundaries unchanged in 2026: official 2022 results. Sources: Élections Québec; transposition to the 2026 map by Kyle Hutton (Blunt Objects).
Neighbouring ridings
- Beauce-NordPCQ 38.1-pt margin
- BellechassePCQ 24.4-pt margin
- Lotbinière-FrontenacPCQ 21.0-pt margin
- MéganticPCQ 2.1-pt margin
How to read these numbers
The estimated vote comes from the model’s central scenario. The probability is the share of the 5,000 simulations won by each party; it remains experimental and depends on the model’s assumptions.
Show on the interactive map · Read the method · All ridings
Projection of October 1, 2026 · polls as of October 1 · 5,000 simulations.