RIDING · OCTOBER 5, 2026 ELECTION
Beauce-Nord
127QC projection for Beauce-Nord as of October 1, 2026: the PCQ leads with 56.0% of the estimated vote, ahead of the PQ (17.9%) and the CAQ (14.9%). In the model’s 5,000 simulations, the PCQ wins > 99% of the time.
LeadingPCQ
Margin38.1 points
Win probability> 99%
Poll-based projection. It describes the race today; the October 5 result may differ.
Candidates and estimated support
PCQ Patricia Drouin
56.0%Win: > 99%PQ Éric Gagnon Poulin
17.9%Win: < 1%CAQ Philippe Simard
14.9%Win: < 1%PLQ Nancy Labbé
9.2%Win: < 1%QS Julie Dionne
1.8%Win: < 1%The 2022 result
| Party | 2022 | 2026 projection | Change (points) |
|---|---|---|---|
| PCQ | 42.8 | 56.0 | +13.2 |
| PQ | 5.9 | 17.9 | +12.0 |
| CAQ | 43.4 | 14.9 | −28.5 |
| PLQ | 2.8 | 9.2 | +6.4 |
| QS | 4.5 | 1.8 | −2.7 |
Boundaries unchanged in 2026: official 2022 results. Sources: Élections Québec; transposition to the 2026 map by Kyle Hutton (Blunt Objects).
Neighbouring ridings
- Beauce-SudPCQ 38.4-pt margin
- BellechassePCQ 24.4-pt margin
- Chutes-de-la-ChaudièrePCQ 13.0-pt margin
- Lotbinière-FrontenacPCQ 21.0-pt margin
How to read these numbers
The estimated vote comes from the model’s central scenario. The probability is the share of the 5,000 simulations won by each party; it remains experimental and depends on the model’s assumptions.
Show on the interactive map · Read the method · All ridings
Projection of October 1, 2026 · polls as of October 1 · 5,000 simulations.