RIDING · OCTOBER 5, 2026 ELECTION

Saint-Hyacinthe

127QC projection for Saint-Hyacinthe as of October 1, 2026: the PQ leads with 37.4% of the estimated vote, ahead of the CAQ (23.5%) and the PCQ (16.7%). In the model’s 5,000 simulations, the PQ wins 92% of the time.

LeadingPQ

Margin13.8 points

Win probability92%

Poll-based projection. It describes the race today; the October 5 result may differ.

Candidates and estimated support

PQ Simon-Pierre Savard-Tremblay

37.4%Win: 92%

CAQ Jessika Gardner

23.5%Win: 8%

PCQ Alexandre Dion-Rolland

16.7%Win: < 1%

PLQ Mariliz Turla-Vadnais

12.1%Win: < 1%

QS Philippe Daigneault

9.8%Win: < 1%

The 2022 result

Party	2022	2026 projection	Change (points)
PQ	16.7	37.4	+20.7
CAQ	54.9	23.5	−31.3
PCQ	9.4	16.7	+7.2
PLQ	4.3	12.1	+7.8
QS	13.5	9.8	−3.7

Boundaries changed with the 2026 electoral map: the 2022 results are estimated on the new territory. Sources: Élections Québec; transposition to the 2026 map by Kyle Hutton (Blunt Objects).

Neighbouring ridings

BorduasPQ 6.0-pt margin
Daniel-JohnsonPQ 12.7-pt margin
IbervillePQ 5.2-pt margin
RichelieuPQ 16.2-pt margin

How to read these numbers

The estimated vote comes from the model’s central scenario. The probability is the share of the 5,000 simulations won by each party; it remains experimental and depends on the model’s assumptions.

Show on the interactive map · Read the method · All ridings

Projection of October 1, 2026 · polls as of October 1 · 5,000 simulations.