RIDING · OCTOBER 5, 2026 ELECTION
Iberville
127QC projection for Iberville as of October 1, 2026: the PQ leads with 32.7% of the estimated vote, ahead of the CAQ (27.5%) and the PCQ (16.5%). In the model’s 5,000 simulations, the PQ wins 72% of the time.
LeadingPQ
Margin5.2 points
Win probability72%
Poll-based projection. It describes the race today; the October 5 result may differ.
Candidates and estimated support
PQ Camille Pellerin-Forget
32.7%Win: 72%CAQ Audrey Bogemans incumbent
27.5%Win: 28%PCQ Mathieu Guérin
16.5%Win: < 1%PLQ Vanessa Riendeau
13.4%Win: < 1%QS Nicolas Chatel-Launay
9.5%Win: < 1%The 2022 result
| Party | 2022 | 2026 projection | Change (points) |
|---|---|---|---|
| PQ | 15.2 | 32.7 | +17.5 |
| CAQ | 53.1 | 27.5 | −25.6 |
| PCQ | 11.3 | 16.5 | +5.3 |
| PLQ | 5.6 | 13.4 | +7.8 |
| QS | 13.7 | 9.5 | −4.2 |
Boundaries unchanged in 2026: official 2022 results. Sources: Élections Québec; transposition to the 2026 map by Kyle Hutton (Blunt Objects).
Neighbouring ridings
- BorduasPQ 6.0-pt margin
- Brome-MissisquoiPQ 3.1-pt margin
- ChamblyPQ 3.0-pt margin
- Daniel-JohnsonPQ 12.7-pt margin
- HuntingdonPQ 3.1-pt margin
- Saint-HyacinthePQ 13.8-pt margin
- Saint-JeanPQ 6.7-pt margin
How to read these numbers
The estimated vote comes from the model’s central scenario. The probability is the share of the 5,000 simulations won by each party; it remains experimental and depends on the model’s assumptions.
Show on the interactive map · Read the method · All ridings
Projection of October 1, 2026 · polls as of October 1 · 5,000 simulations.