RIDING · OCTOBER 5, 2026 ELECTION

ChamblyClose race

127QC projection for Chambly as of October 1, 2026: the PQ leads with 33.3% of the estimated vote, ahead of the CAQ (30.3%) and the PLQ (15.4%). In the model’s 5,000 simulations, the PQ wins 62% of the time. It is a close race: fewer than 3 points separate the top two parties.

LeadingPQ

Margin3.0 points

Win probability62%

Poll-based projection. It describes the race today; the October 5 result may differ.

Candidates and estimated support

PQ Julie Guyot

33.3%Win: 62%

CAQ Jean-François Roberge incumbent

30.3%Win: 38%

PLQ Sarah Belbey

15.4%Win: < 1%

QS Jessyca Sorel

11.2%Win: < 1%

PCQ Margarita Kantor

9.4%Win: < 1%

The 2022 result

Party	2022	2026 projection	Change (points)
PQ	17.9	33.3	+15.4
CAQ	48.5	30.3	−18.2
PLQ	7.9	15.4	+7.6
QS	16.4	11.2	−5.1
PCQ	8.3	9.4	+1.1

Boundaries unchanged in 2026: official 2022 results. Sources: Élections Québec; transposition to the 2026 map by Kyle Hutton (Blunt Objects).

Neighbouring ridings

IbervillePQ 5.2-pt margin
La PinièrePLQ 35.9-pt margin
MontarvillePQ 5.8-pt margin
Saint-JeanPQ 6.7-pt margin
VachonCAQ 0.9-pt margin

How to read these numbers

The estimated vote comes from the model’s central scenario. The probability is the share of the 5,000 simulations won by each party; it remains experimental and depends on the model’s assumptions.

Show on the interactive map · Read the method · All ridings

Projection of October 1, 2026 · polls as of October 1 · 5,000 simulations.