RIDING · OCTOBER 5, 2026 ELECTION
La Pinière
127QC projection for La Pinière as of October 1, 2026: the PLQ leads with 53.0% of the estimated vote, ahead of the PQ (17.1%) and the CAQ (13.4%). In the model’s 5,000 simulations, the PLQ wins > 99% of the time.
LeadingPLQ
Margin35.9 points
Win probability> 99%
Poll-based projection. It describes the race today; the October 5 result may differ.
Candidates and estimated support
PLQ Linda Caron incumbent
53.0%Win: > 99%PQ Sarah Plante
17.1%Win: < 1%CAQ Clément Mireault
13.4%Win: < 1%PCQ Tzarevna Bratkova
10.1%Win: < 1%QS Jacinthe Chapleau
5.4%Win: < 1%The 2022 result
| Party | 2022 | 2026 projection | Change (points) |
|---|---|---|---|
| PLQ | 38.5 | 53.0 | +14.5 |
| PQ | 7.8 | 17.1 | +9.3 |
| CAQ | 31.2 | 13.4 | −17.8 |
| PCQ | 10.2 | 10.1 | −0.1 |
| QS | 10.0 | 5.4 | −4.7 |
Boundaries unchanged in 2026: official 2022 results. Sources: Élections Québec; transposition to the 2026 map by Kyle Hutton (Blunt Objects).
Neighbouring ridings
- ChamblyPQ 3.0-pt margin
- La PrairiePQ 0.7-pt margin
- Pierre-LaportePLQ 17.4-pt margin
How to read these numbers
The estimated vote comes from the model’s central scenario. The probability is the share of the 5,000 simulations won by each party; it remains experimental and depends on the model’s assumptions.
Show on the interactive map · Read the method · All ridings
Projection of October 1, 2026 · polls as of October 1 · 5,000 simulations.