RIDING · OCTOBER 5, 2026 ELECTION

La PrairieClose race

127QC projection for La Prairie as of October 1, 2026: the PQ leads with 26.6% of the estimated vote, ahead of the CAQ (25.9%) and the PLQ (25.7%). In the model’s 5,000 simulations, the PQ wins 34% of the time. It is a close race: fewer than 3 points separate the top two parties.

LeadingPQ

Margin0.7 points

Win probability34%

Poll-based projection. It describes the race today; the October 5 result may differ.

Exception. La Prairie is calculated without the regional adjustment, as an editorial choice (October 1, 2026). The reasons are explained in the method.

Candidates and estimated support

PQ Frédéric Côté

26.6%Win: 34%

CAQ Pierre Guillot-Hurtubise

25.9%Win: 33%

PLQ Sonia Ziadé

25.7%Win: 32%

PCQ Marie Pelletier

12.4%Win: 1%

QS Francine Van Winden

9.1%Win: < 1%

The 2022 result

Party	2022	2026 projection	Change (points)
PQ	11.4	26.6	+15.2
CAQ	52.7	25.9	−26.9
PLQ	13.9	25.7	+11.9
PCQ	8.0	12.4	+4.4
QS	13.1	9.1	−4.0

Boundaries unchanged in 2026: official 2022 results. Sources: Élections Québec; transposition to the 2026 map by Kyle Hutton (Blunt Objects).

Neighbouring ridings

HuntingdonPQ 3.1-pt margin
La PinièrePLQ 35.9-pt margin
Saint-JeanPQ 6.7-pt margin
SanguinetPQ 6.0-pt margin

How to read these numbers

The estimated vote comes from the model’s central scenario. The probability is the share of the 5,000 simulations won by each party; it remains experimental and depends on the model’s assumptions.

Show on the interactive map · Read the method · All ridings

Projection of October 1, 2026 · polls as of October 1 · 5,000 simulations.