RIDING · OCTOBER 5, 2026 ELECTION
Sanguinet
127QC projection for Sanguinet as of October 1, 2026: the PQ leads with 32.4% of the estimated vote, ahead of the CAQ (26.4%) and the PLQ (18.9%). In the model’s 5,000 simulations, the PQ wins 74% of the time.
LeadingPQ
Margin6.0 points
Win probability74%
Poll-based projection. It describes the race today; the October 5 result may differ.
Candidates and estimated support
PQ Alain Therrien
32.4%Win: 74%CAQ Jean Lacroix
26.4%Win: 24%PLQ Pinou Thong
18.9%Win: 1%PCQ Serge Benoit
12.9%Win: < 1%QS Virginie Bernier
8.9%Win: < 1%The 2022 result
| Party | 2022 | 2026 projection | Change (points) |
|---|---|---|---|
| PQ | 16.3 | 32.4 | +16.1 |
| CAQ | 48.8 | 26.4 | −22.4 |
| PLQ | 9.9 | 18.9 | +9.0 |
| PCQ | 10.6 | 12.9 | +2.3 |
| QS | 13.1 | 8.9 | −4.3 |
Boundaries unchanged in 2026: official 2022 results. Sources: Élections Québec; transposition to the 2026 map by Kyle Hutton (Blunt Objects).
Neighbouring ridings
- ChâteauguayPLQ 12.7-pt margin
- HuntingdonPQ 3.1-pt margin
- La PrairiePQ 0.7-pt margin
How to read these numbers
The estimated vote comes from the model’s central scenario. The probability is the share of the 5,000 simulations won by each party; it remains experimental and depends on the model’s assumptions.
Show on the interactive map · Read the method · All ridings
Projection of October 1, 2026 · polls as of October 1 · 5,000 simulations.