RIDING · OCTOBER 5, 2026 ELECTION
Châteauguay
127QC projection for Châteauguay as of October 1, 2026: the PLQ leads with 35.9% of the estimated vote, ahead of the PQ (23.3%) and the CAQ (21.9%). In the model’s 5,000 simulations, the PLQ wins 86% of the time.
LeadingPLQ
Margin12.7 points
Win probability86%
Poll-based projection. It describes the race today; the October 5 result may differ.
Candidates and estimated support
PLQ Félix Rhéaume
35.9%Win: 86%PQ Yannick Trudeau
23.3%Win: 5%CAQ Marie-Belle Gendron incumbent
21.9%Win: 9%PCQ Mohsen Eshtiaghi
10.6%Win: < 1%QS Marianne Pharand-Roy
7.8%Win: < 1%The 2022 result
| Party | 2022 | 2026 projection | Change (points) |
|---|---|---|---|
| PLQ | 24.8 | 35.9 | +11.2 |
| PQ | 11.8 | 23.3 | +11.4 |
| CAQ | 39.1 | 21.9 | −17.2 |
| PCQ | 10.1 | 10.6 | +0.5 |
| QS | 12.8 | 7.8 | −5.0 |
Boundaries unchanged in 2026: official 2022 results. Sources: Élections Québec; transposition to the 2026 map by Kyle Hutton (Blunt Objects).
Neighbouring ridings
- BeauharnoisPQ 6.8-pt margin
- SanguinetPQ 6.0-pt margin
How to read these numbers
The estimated vote comes from the model’s central scenario. The probability is the share of the 5,000 simulations won by each party; it remains experimental and depends on the model’s assumptions.
Show on the interactive map · Read the method · All ridings
Projection of October 1, 2026 · polls as of October 1 · 5,000 simulations.