RIDING · OCTOBER 5, 2026 ELECTION

Saint-Jean

127QC projection for Saint-Jean as of October 1, 2026: the PQ leads with 36.5% of the estimated vote, ahead of the CAQ (29.7%) and the PLQ (13.5%). In the model’s 5,000 simulations, the PQ wins 76% of the time.

LeadingPQ

Margin6.7 points

Win probability76%

Poll-based projection. It describes the race today; the October 5 result may differ.

Candidates and estimated support

PQ Gaétan Bédard

36.5%Win: 76%

CAQ Yves Bisson

29.7%Win: 24%

PLQ Patrice Léger-Bourgoin

13.5%Win: < 1%

QS Pierre-Luc Lavertu

10.3%Win: < 1%

PCQ Luc Sanfaçon

9.7%Win: < 1%

The 2022 result

Party	2022	2026 projection	Change (points)
PQ	19.2	36.5	+17.3
CAQ	50.8	29.7	−21.1
PLQ	6.0	13.5	+7.4
QS	14.8	10.3	−4.5
PCQ	8.2	9.7	+1.5

Boundaries changed with the 2026 electoral map: the 2022 results are estimated on the new territory. Sources: Élections Québec; transposition to the 2026 map by Kyle Hutton (Blunt Objects).

Neighbouring ridings

ChamblyPQ 3.0-pt margin
HuntingdonPQ 3.1-pt margin
IbervillePQ 5.2-pt margin
La PrairiePQ 0.7-pt margin

How to read these numbers

The estimated vote comes from the model’s central scenario. The probability is the share of the 5,000 simulations won by each party; it remains experimental and depends on the model’s assumptions.

Show on the interactive map · Read the method · All ridings

Projection of October 1, 2026 · polls as of October 1 · 5,000 simulations.