RIDING · OCTOBER 5, 2026 ELECTION
Pierre-Laporte
127QC projection for Pierre-Laporte as of October 1, 2026: the PLQ leads with 41.5% of the estimated vote, ahead of the PQ (24.1%) and the CAQ (12.6%). In the model’s 5,000 simulations, the PLQ wins 96% of the time.
LeadingPLQ
Margin17.4 points
Win probability96%
Poll-based projection. It describes the race today; the October 5 result may differ.
Candidates and estimated support
PLQ David Bowles
41.5%Win: 96%PQ Anne-Sophie Maguire Armand
24.1%Win: 3%CAQ Mélanie Martin
12.6%Win: 1%QS Claude Lefrançois
11.9%Win: < 1%PCQ Mi Jie
8.1%Win: < 1%The 2022 result
| Party | 2022 | 2026 projection | Change (points) |
|---|---|---|---|
| PLQ | 28.8 | 41.5 | +12.7 |
| PQ | 12.2 | 24.1 | +11.9 |
| CAQ | 30.8 | 12.6 | −18.1 |
| QS | 17.7 | 11.9 | −5.8 |
| PCQ | 7.4 | 8.1 | +0.8 |
Boundaries unchanged in 2026: official 2022 results. Sources: Élections Québec; transposition to the 2026 map by Kyle Hutton (Blunt Objects).
Neighbouring ridings
- La PinièrePLQ 35.9-pt margin
- Marie-VictorinPQ 23.4-pt margin
- VachonCAQ 0.9-pt margin
How to read these numbers
The estimated vote comes from the model’s central scenario. The probability is the share of the 5,000 simulations won by each party; it remains experimental and depends on the model’s assumptions.
Show on the interactive map · Read the method · All ridings
Projection of October 1, 2026 · polls as of October 1 · 5,000 simulations.