RIDING · OCTOBER 5, 2026 ELECTION
Marie-Victorin
127QC projection for Marie-Victorin as of October 1, 2026: the PQ leads with 40.8% of the estimated vote, ahead of the PLQ (17.4%) and the CAQ (17.3%). In the model’s 5,000 simulations, the PQ wins 98% of the time.
LeadingPQ
Margin23.4 points
Win probability98%
Poll-based projection. It describes the race today; the October 5 result may differ.
Candidates and estimated support
PQ Nicolas Marceau
40.8%Win: 98%PLQ Lyes Chekal
17.4%Win: < 1%CAQ Shirley Dorismond incumbent
17.3%Win: 2%QS Lauréline Manassero
15.6%Win: < 1%PCQ Amélie Legeay
7.7%Win: < 1%The 2022 result
| Party | 2022 | 2026 projection | Change (points) |
|---|---|---|---|
| PQ | 24.8 | 40.8 | +16.0 |
| PLQ | 10.0 | 17.4 | +7.4 |
| CAQ | 33.1 | 17.3 | −15.8 |
| QS | 22.7 | 15.6 | −7.0 |
| PCQ | 7.0 | 7.7 | +0.6 |
Boundaries unchanged in 2026: official 2022 results. Sources: Élections Québec; transposition to the 2026 map by Kyle Hutton (Blunt Objects).
Neighbouring ridings
- Pierre-LaportePLQ 17.4-pt margin
How to read these numbers
The estimated vote comes from the model’s central scenario. The probability is the share of the 5,000 simulations won by each party; it remains experimental and depends on the model’s assumptions.
Show on the interactive map · Read the method · All ridings
Projection of October 1, 2026 · polls as of October 1 · 5,000 simulations.