RIDING · OCTOBER 5, 2026 ELECTION
Montarville
127QC projection for Montarville as of October 1, 2026: the PQ leads with 33.6% of the estimated vote, ahead of the CAQ (27.8%) and the PLQ (20.9%). In the model’s 5,000 simulations, the PQ wins 73% of the time.
LeadingPQ
Margin5.8 points
Win probability73%
Poll-based projection. It describes the race today; the October 5 result may differ.
Candidates and estimated support
PQ Jean-François Cloutier
33.6%Win: 73%CAQ Nathalie Roy incumbent
27.8%Win: 25%PLQ Mathieu Lavoie
20.9%Win: 2%QS Ginette Langlois
10.9%Win: < 1%PCQ Marc Rondeau
6.0%Win: < 1%The 2022 result
| Party | 2022 | 2026 projection | Change (points) |
|---|---|---|---|
| PQ | 18.7 | 33.6 | +14.9 |
| CAQ | 45.9 | 27.8 | −18.1 |
| PLQ | 12.3 | 20.9 | +8.6 |
| QS | 16.2 | 10.9 | −5.4 |
| PCQ | 5.1 | 6.0 | +0.9 |
Boundaries unchanged in 2026: official 2022 results. Sources: Élections Québec; transposition to the 2026 map by Kyle Hutton (Blunt Objects).
Neighbouring ridings
How to read these numbers
The estimated vote comes from the model’s central scenario. The probability is the share of the 5,000 simulations won by each party; it remains experimental and depends on the model’s assumptions.
Show on the interactive map · Read the method · All ridings
Projection of October 1, 2026 · polls as of October 1 · 5,000 simulations.