RIDING · OCTOBER 5, 2026 ELECTION

Verchères

127QC projection for Verchères as of October 1, 2026: the PQ leads with 38.3% of the estimated vote, ahead of the CAQ (30.3%) and the PLQ (12.5%). In the model’s 5,000 simulations, the PQ wins 79% of the time.

LeadingPQ

Margin8.0 points

Win probability79%

Poll-based projection. It describes the race today; the October 5 result may differ.

Candidates and estimated support

PQ Guy Jr Lapointe

38.3%Win: 79%

CAQ Marie-Hélène Leboeuf

30.3%Win: 21%

PLQ Yacine Masrouki

12.5%Win: < 1%

QS Léonie Thibault Rousseau

10.2%Win: < 1%

PCQ Julien Malo

8.3%Win: < 1%

The 2022 result

Party	2022	2026 projection	Change (points)
PQ	20.4	38.3	+17.9
CAQ	51.7	30.3	−21.3
PLQ	5.3	12.5	+7.1
QS	14.7	10.2	−4.5
PCQ	6.8	8.3	+1.5

Boundaries changed with the 2026 electoral map: the 2022 results are estimated on the new territory. Sources: Élections Québec; transposition to the 2026 map by Kyle Hutton (Blunt Objects).

Neighbouring ridings

BorduasPQ 6.0-pt margin
L'AssomptionPQ 2.1-pt margin
MontarvillePQ 5.8-pt margin
Pointe-aux-TremblesPQ 7.5-pt margin
RepentignyCAQ 1.1-pt margin

How to read these numbers

The estimated vote comes from the model’s central scenario. The probability is the share of the 5,000 simulations won by each party; it remains experimental and depends on the model’s assumptions.

Show on the interactive map · Read the method · All ridings

Projection of October 1, 2026 · polls as of October 1 · 5,000 simulations.