RIDING · OCTOBER 5, 2026 ELECTION
Taillon
127QC projection for Taillon as of October 1, 2026: the PQ leads with 36.6% of the estimated vote, ahead of the CAQ (21.6%) and the PLQ (20.5%). In the model’s 5,000 simulations, the PQ wins 94% of the time.
LeadingPQ
Margin15.0 points
Win probability94%
Poll-based projection. It describes the race today; the October 5 result may differ.
Candidates and estimated support
PQ Sandra Hernández
36.6%Win: 94%CAQ Stéphane Lavoie
21.6%Win: 5%PLQ Boubacar Camara
20.5%Win: 1%QS David Lalumière
13.3%Win: < 1%PCQ Samuel Bérubé
7.6%Win: < 1%The 2022 result
| Party | 2022 | 2026 projection | Change (points) |
|---|---|---|---|
| PQ | 20.3 | 36.6 | +16.3 |
| CAQ | 41.5 | 21.6 | −19.9 |
| PLQ | 11.6 | 20.5 | +8.9 |
| QS | 18.9 | 13.3 | −5.6 |
| PCQ | 6.5 | 7.6 | +1.1 |
Boundaries unchanged in 2026: official 2022 results. Sources: Élections Québec; transposition to the 2026 map by Kyle Hutton (Blunt Objects).
Neighbouring ridings
- Camille-LaurinPQ 35.2-pt margin
- MontarvillePQ 5.8-pt margin
- VachonCAQ 0.9-pt margin
How to read these numbers
The estimated vote comes from the model’s central scenario. The probability is the share of the 5,000 simulations won by each party; it remains experimental and depends on the model’s assumptions.
Show on the interactive map · Read the method · All ridings
Projection of October 1, 2026 · polls as of October 1 · 5,000 simulations.