RIDING · OCTOBER 5, 2026 ELECTION
Camille-Laurin
127QC projection for Camille-Laurin as of October 1, 2026: the PQ leads with 57.2% of the estimated vote, ahead of the PLQ (22.0%) and the CAQ (12.8%). In the model’s 5,000 simulations, the PQ wins > 99% of the time.
LeadingPQ
Margin35.2 points
Win probability> 99%
Poll-based projection. It describes the race today; the October 5 result may differ.
Candidates and estimated support
PQ Paul St-Pierre Plamondon incumbent
57.2%Win: > 99%PLQ Earl Corales
22.0%Win: < 1%CAQ Matys Lavigne
12.8%Win: < 1%PCQ Jessy Comtois
6.1%Win: < 1%QS René Gauvreau
0.2%Win: < 1%The 2022 result
| Party | 2022 | 2026 projection | Change (points) |
|---|---|---|---|
| PQ | 41.7 | 57.2 | +15.5 |
| PLQ | 16.5 | 22.0 | +5.6 |
| CAQ | 31.9 | 12.8 | −19.1 |
| PCQ | 6.5 | 6.1 | −0.4 |
| QS | 0.0 | 0.2 | +0.2 |
Boundaries unchanged in 2026: official 2022 results. Sources: Élections Québec; transposition to the 2026 map by Kyle Hutton (Blunt Objects).
Neighbouring ridings
- Anjou–Louis-RielPLQ 20.5-pt margin
- TaillonPQ 15.0-pt margin
How to read these numbers
The estimated vote comes from the model’s central scenario. The probability is the share of the 5,000 simulations won by each party; it remains experimental and depends on the model’s assumptions.
Show on the interactive map · Read the method · All ridings
Projection of October 1, 2026 · polls as of October 1 · 5,000 simulations.