RIDING · OCTOBER 5, 2026 ELECTION
Anjou–Louis-Riel
127QC projection for Anjou–Louis-Riel as of October 1, 2026: the PLQ leads with 42.3% of the estimated vote, ahead of the PQ (21.8%) and the CAQ (18.8%). In the model’s 5,000 simulations, the PLQ wins 96% of the time.
LeadingPLQ
Margin20.5 points
Win probability96%
Poll-based projection. It describes the race today; the October 5 result may differ.
Candidates and estimated support
PLQ Nicolas Plourde
42.3%Win: 96%PQ Younès Dadoun
21.8%Win: 1%CAQ Karine Boivin Roy incumbent
18.8%Win: 3%QS Edissya Boukrif
9.2%Win: < 1%PCQ Helder Da Costa Leitao
7.6%Win: < 1%The 2022 result
| Party | 2022 | 2026 projection | Change (points) |
|---|---|---|---|
| PLQ | 30.5 | 42.3 | +11.8 |
| PQ | 11.0 | 21.8 | +10.8 |
| CAQ | 35.6 | 18.8 | −16.7 |
| QS | 14.8 | 9.2 | −5.5 |
| PCQ | 7.2 | 7.6 | +0.5 |
Boundaries unchanged in 2026: official 2022 results. Sources: Élections Québec; transposition to the 2026 map by Kyle Hutton (Blunt Objects).
Neighbouring ridings
- Camille-LaurinPQ 35.2-pt margin
- Jeanne-Mance–VigerPLQ 54.5-pt margin
How to read these numbers
The estimated vote comes from the model’s central scenario. The probability is the share of the 5,000 simulations won by each party; it remains experimental and depends on the model’s assumptions.
Show on the interactive map · Read the method · All ridings
Projection of October 1, 2026 · polls as of October 1 · 5,000 simulations.