RIDING · OCTOBER 5, 2026 ELECTION
Bertrand
127QC projection for Bertrand as of October 1, 2026: the PQ leads with 40.2% of the estimated vote, ahead of the CAQ (18.3%) and the PCQ (15.8%). In the model’s 5,000 simulations, the PQ wins 98% of the time.
LeadingPQ
Margin21.9 points
Win probability98%
Poll-based projection. It describes the race today; the October 5 result may differ.
Candidates and estimated support
PQ Alexandre Girard-Duchaine
40.2%Win: 98%CAQ France-Élaine Duranceau incumbent
18.3%Win: 2%PCQ Éliot Gallant
15.8%Win: < 1%PLQ Felipe Morales
13.6%Win: < 1%QS Nataël Bureau
11.1%Win: < 1%The 2022 result
| Party | 2022 | 2026 projection | Change (points) |
|---|---|---|---|
| PQ | 20.6 | 40.2 | +19.5 |
| CAQ | 45.3 | 18.3 | −27.0 |
| PCQ | 9.8 | 15.8 | +6.0 |
| PLQ | 6.0 | 13.6 | +7.6 |
| QS | 16.1 | 11.1 | −5.0 |
Boundaries unchanged in 2026: official 2022 results. Sources: Élections Québec; transposition to the 2026 map by Kyle Hutton (Blunt Objects).
Neighbouring ridings
- ArgenteuilPQ 10.1-pt margin
- BerthierPQ 22.5-pt margin
- LabellePQ 18.5-pt margin
- PrévostPQ 19.7-pt margin
- RousseauPQ 8.6-pt margin
How to read these numbers
The estimated vote comes from the model’s central scenario. The probability is the share of the 5,000 simulations won by each party; it remains experimental and depends on the model’s assumptions.
Show on the interactive map · Read the method · All ridings
Projection of October 1, 2026 · polls as of October 1 · 5,000 simulations.