RIDING · OCTOBER 5, 2026 ELECTION
LaFontaine
127QC projection for LaFontaine as of October 1, 2026: the PLQ leads with 64.7% of the estimated vote, ahead of the PQ (12.9%) and the PCQ (11.8%). In the model’s 5,000 simulations, the PLQ wins > 99% of the time.
LeadingPLQ
Margin51.8 points
Win probability> 99%
Poll-based projection. It describes the race today; the October 5 result may differ.
Candidates and estimated support
PLQ Marc Tanguay incumbent
64.7%Win: > 99%PQ Joyd Rolkins Daréus
12.9%Win: < 1%PCQ Andréanne Bareil
11.8%Win: < 1%CAQ Guepsly Florvil
6.0%Win: < 1%QS Kim Fontaine
4.2%Win: < 1%The 2022 result
| Party | 2022 | 2026 projection | Change (points) |
|---|---|---|---|
| PLQ | 51.7 | 64.7 | +13.0 |
| PQ | 5.1 | 12.9 | +7.8 |
| PCQ | 13.1 | 11.8 | −1.3 |
| CAQ | 20.0 | 6.0 | −14.0 |
| QS | 8.9 | 4.2 | −4.7 |
Boundaries unchanged in 2026: official 2022 results. Sources: Élections Québec; transposition to the 2026 map by Kyle Hutton (Blunt Objects).
Neighbouring ridings
- Mille-ÎlesPLQ 20.3-pt margin
- Pointe-aux-TremblesPQ 7.5-pt margin
How to read these numbers
The estimated vote comes from the model’s central scenario. The probability is the share of the 5,000 simulations won by each party; it remains experimental and depends on the model’s assumptions.
Show on the interactive map · Read the method · All ridings
Projection of October 1, 2026 · polls as of October 1 · 5,000 simulations.