RIDING · OCTOBER 5, 2026 ELECTION

Mirabel

127QC projection for Mirabel as of October 1, 2026: the PQ leads with 32.8% of the estimated vote, ahead of the CAQ (29.7%) and the PLQ (14.9%). In the model’s 5,000 simulations, the PQ wins 62% of the time.

LeadingPQ

Margin3.1 points

Win probability62%

Poll-based projection. It describes the race today; the October 5 result may differ.

Candidates and estimated support

PQ Geneviève Couture

32.8%Win: 62%

CAQ Marjolaine Ferron

29.7%Win: 38%

PLQ Daniela Rodriguez

14.9%Win: < 1%

PCQ Francis Brosseau

12.9%Win: < 1%

QS Marjolaine Goudreau

9.6%Win: < 1%

The 2022 result

Party	2022	2026 projection	Change (points)
PQ	16.7	32.8	+16.1
CAQ	50.6	29.7	−21.0
PLQ	7.0	14.9	+7.8
PCQ	11.2	12.9	+1.7
QS	14.0	9.6	−4.3

Boundaries changed with the 2026 electoral map: the 2022 results are estimated on the new territory. Sources: Élections Québec; transposition to the 2026 map by Kyle Hutton (Blunt Objects).

Neighbouring ridings

ArgenteuilPQ 10.1-pt margin
BellefeuillePQ 8.2-pt margin
Deux-MontagnesPQ 6.5-pt margin
GroulxCAQ 0.2-pt margin
NelliganPLQ 51.2-pt margin

How to read these numbers

The estimated vote comes from the model’s central scenario. The probability is the share of the 5,000 simulations won by each party; it remains experimental and depends on the model’s assumptions.

Show on the interactive map · Read the method · All ridings

Projection of October 1, 2026 · polls as of October 1 · 5,000 simulations.