RIDING · OCTOBER 5, 2026 ELECTION
Nelligan
127QC projection for Nelligan as of October 1, 2026: the PLQ leads with 64.5% of the estimated vote, ahead of the PCQ (13.3%) and the PQ (11.7%). In the model’s 5,000 simulations, the PLQ wins > 99% of the time.
LeadingPLQ
Margin51.2 points
Win probability> 99%
Poll-based projection. It describes the race today; the October 5 result may differ.
Candidates and estimated support
PLQ Monsef Derraji incumbent
64.5%Win: > 99%PCQ Gary Charles
13.3%Win: < 1%PQ Martine Dubois
11.7%Win: < 1%CAQ Tom Tang
5.4%Win: < 1%QS Dominique Naud
1.6%Win: < 1%The 2022 result
| Party | 2022 | 2026 projection | Change (points) |
|---|---|---|---|
| PLQ | 52.0 | 64.5 | +12.5 |
| PCQ | 15.1 | 13.3 | −1.8 |
| PQ | 4.2 | 11.7 | +7.5 |
| CAQ | 16.6 | 5.4 | −11.2 |
| QS | 5.3 | 1.6 | −3.7 |
Boundaries unchanged in 2026: official 2022 results. Sources: Élections Québec; transposition to the 2026 map by Kyle Hutton (Blunt Objects).
Neighbouring ridings
- FabrePLQ 23.0-pt margin
- Jacques-CartierPLQ 62.0-pt margin
- MirabelPQ 3.1-pt margin
- Robert-BaldwinPLQ 54.3-pt margin
How to read these numbers
The estimated vote comes from the model’s central scenario. The probability is the share of the 5,000 simulations won by each party; it remains experimental and depends on the model’s assumptions.
Show on the interactive map · Read the method · All ridings
Projection of October 1, 2026 · polls as of October 1 · 5,000 simulations.