RIDING · OCTOBER 5, 2026 ELECTION
Jacques-Cartier
127QC projection for Jacques-Cartier as of October 1, 2026: the PLQ leads with 71.5% of the estimated vote, ahead of the PQ (9.5%) and the PCQ (9.3%). In the model’s 5,000 simulations, the PLQ wins > 99% of the time.
LeadingPLQ
Margin62.0 points
Win probability> 99%
Poll-based projection. It describes the race today; the October 5 result may differ.
Candidates and estimated support
PLQ Gregory Kelley incumbent
71.5%Win: > 99%PQ Céline Dauphinais
9.5%Win: < 1%PCQ Pina Di Dio
9.3%Win: < 1%CAQ Santiago Proteau Sanchez
4.0%Win: < 1%QS Gabriel Laurence-Brook
1.3%Win: < 1%The 2022 result
| Party | 2022 | 2026 projection | Change (points) |
|---|---|---|---|
| PLQ | 62.6 | 71.5 | +9.0 |
| PQ | 3.0 | 9.5 | +6.5 |
| PCQ | 11.2 | 9.3 | −2.0 |
| CAQ | 9.4 | 4.0 | −5.4 |
| QS | 5.0 | 1.3 | −3.7 |
Boundaries unchanged in 2026: official 2022 results. Sources: Élections Québec; transposition to the 2026 map by Kyle Hutton (Blunt Objects).
Neighbouring ridings
- MarquettePLQ 43.7-pt margin
- NelliganPLQ 51.2-pt margin
- Robert-BaldwinPLQ 54.3-pt margin
- VaudreuilPLQ 28.7-pt margin
How to read these numbers
The estimated vote comes from the model’s central scenario. The probability is the share of the 5,000 simulations won by each party; it remains experimental and depends on the model’s assumptions.
Show on the interactive map · Read the method · All ridings
Projection of October 1, 2026 · polls as of October 1 · 5,000 simulations.