RIDING · OCTOBER 5, 2026 ELECTION
Robert-Baldwin
127QC projection for Robert-Baldwin as of October 1, 2026: the PLQ leads with 67.6% of the estimated vote, ahead of the PCQ (13.2%) and the PQ (9.3%). In the model’s 5,000 simulations, the PLQ wins > 99% of the time.
LeadingPLQ
Margin54.3 points
Win probability> 99%
Poll-based projection. It describes the race today; the October 5 result may differ.
Candidates and estimated support
PLQ Brigitte Garceau incumbent
67.6%Win: > 99%PCQ Axel Lellouche
13.2%Win: < 1%PQ Maurice Daude
9.3%Win: < 1%CAQ Sophie Leroux
4.1%Win: < 1%QS Alexandra Lacoste
1.4%Win: < 1%The 2022 result
| Party | 2022 | 2026 projection | Change (points) |
|---|---|---|---|
| PLQ | 57.8 | 67.6 | +9.8 |
| PCQ | 16.0 | 13.2 | −2.8 |
| PQ | 2.6 | 9.3 | +6.7 |
| CAQ | 9.8 | 4.1 | −5.7 |
| QS | 5.0 | 1.4 | −3.7 |
Boundaries unchanged in 2026: official 2022 results. Sources: Élections Québec; transposition to the 2026 map by Kyle Hutton (Blunt Objects).
Neighbouring ridings
- FabrePLQ 23.0-pt margin
- Jacques-CartierPLQ 62.0-pt margin
- NelliganPLQ 51.2-pt margin
- Saint-LaurentPLQ 44.9-pt margin
How to read these numbers
The estimated vote comes from the model’s central scenario. The probability is the share of the 5,000 simulations won by each party; it remains experimental and depends on the model’s assumptions.
Show on the interactive map · Read the method · All ridings
Projection of October 1, 2026 · polls as of October 1 · 5,000 simulations.