RIDING · OCTOBER 5, 2026 ELECTION
Saint-Laurent
127QC projection for Saint-Laurent as of October 1, 2026: the PLQ leads with 59.2% of the estimated vote, ahead of the PQ (14.3%) and the PCQ (12.9%). In the model’s 5,000 simulations, the PLQ wins > 99% of the time.
LeadingPLQ
Margin44.9 points
Win probability> 99%
Poll-based projection. It describes the race today; the October 5 result may differ.
Candidates and estimated support
PLQ Valérie Assouline
59.2%Win: > 99%PQ Pierre-Étienne Nantel
14.3%Win: < 1%PCQ Barry Rolbin
12.9%Win: < 1%CAQ Tahmina Kabir
5.2%Win: < 1%QS Étienne Loiselle-Schiettekatte
5.1%Win: < 1%The 2022 result
| Party | 2022 | 2026 projection | Change (points) |
|---|---|---|---|
| PLQ | 50.0 | 59.2 | +9.2 |
| PQ | 5.9 | 14.3 | +8.4 |
| PCQ | 13.9 | 12.9 | −0.9 |
| CAQ | 14.3 | 5.2 | −9.1 |
| QS | 9.9 | 5.1 | −4.8 |
Boundaries unchanged in 2026: official 2022 results. Sources: Élections Québec; transposition to the 2026 map by Kyle Hutton (Blunt Objects).
Neighbouring ridings
- AcadiePLQ 35.7-pt margin
- ChomedeyPLQ 28.9-pt margin
- MarquettePLQ 43.7-pt margin
- Mont-Royal–OutremontPLQ 30.7-pt margin
- Robert-BaldwinPLQ 54.3-pt margin
How to read these numbers
The estimated vote comes from the model’s central scenario. The probability is the share of the 5,000 simulations won by each party; it remains experimental and depends on the model’s assumptions.
Show on the interactive map · Read the method · All ridings
Projection of October 1, 2026 · polls as of October 1 · 5,000 simulations.