RIDING · OCTOBER 5, 2026 ELECTION
Mont-Royal–Outremont
127QC projection for Mont-Royal–Outremont as of October 1, 2026: the PLQ leads with 51.2% of the estimated vote, ahead of the PQ (20.5%) and Québec solidaire (12.4%). In the model’s 5,000 simulations, the PLQ wins > 99% of the time.
LeadingPLQ
Margin30.7 points
Win probability> 99%
Poll-based projection. It describes the race today; the October 5 result may differ.
Candidates and estimated support
PLQ Michelle Setlakwe incumbent
51.2%Win: > 99%PQ Ariane Bureau
20.5%Win: < 1%QS Marianne Locas-Ouimet
12.4%Win: < 1%PCQ Yaron Avsker
8.0%Win: < 1%CAQ Sarah Beaumier
5.5%Win: < 1%The 2022 result
| Party | 2022 | 2026 projection | Change (points) |
|---|---|---|---|
| PLQ | 39.3 | 51.2 | +11.9 |
| PQ | 11.4 | 20.5 | +9.1 |
| QS | 20.3 | 12.4 | −7.9 |
| PCQ | 8.5 | 8.0 | −0.5 |
| CAQ | 15.8 | 5.5 | −10.3 |
Boundaries unchanged in 2026: official 2022 results. Sources: Élections Québec; transposition to the 2026 map by Kyle Hutton (Blunt Objects).
Neighbouring ridings
- D'Arcy-McGeePLQ 42.9-pt margin
- Laurier-DorionQS 8.0-pt margin
- Saint-LaurentPLQ 44.9-pt margin
- Westmount–Saint-LouisPLQ 48.1-pt margin
How to read these numbers
The estimated vote comes from the model’s central scenario. The probability is the share of the 5,000 simulations won by each party; it remains experimental and depends on the model’s assumptions.
Show on the interactive map · Read the method · All ridings
Projection of October 1, 2026 · polls as of October 1 · 5,000 simulations.