RIDING · OCTOBER 5, 2026 ELECTION
Laurier-Dorion
127QC projection for Laurier-Dorion as of October 1, 2026: Québec solidaire leads with 37.0% of the estimated vote, ahead of the PLQ (29.0%) and the PQ (20.5%). In the model’s 5,000 simulations, Québec solidaire wins 73% of the time.
LeadingQS
Margin8.0 points
Win probability73%
Poll-based projection. It describes the race today; the October 5 result may differ.
Candidates and estimated support
QS Andrés Fontecilla incumbent
37.0%Win: 73%PLQ Randy Legault-Rankin
29.0%Win: 25%PQ Kelly Lazo de la Vega
20.5%Win: 2%PCQ Marc-Antoine Cusson
6.0%Win: < 1%CAQ Emil Parfyonov
5.3%Win: < 1%The 2022 result
| Party | 2022 | 2026 projection | Change (points) |
|---|---|---|---|
| QS | 48.8 | 37.0 | −11.8 |
| PLQ | 19.6 | 29.0 | +9.4 |
| PQ | 10.3 | 20.5 | +10.3 |
| PCQ | 5.5 | 6.0 | +0.5 |
| CAQ | 11.7 | 5.3 | −6.4 |
Boundaries unchanged in 2026: official 2022 results. Sources: Élections Québec; transposition to the 2026 map by Kyle Hutton (Blunt Objects).
Neighbouring ridings
- GouinQS 11.4-pt margin
- Mont-Royal–OutremontPLQ 30.7-pt margin
How to read these numbers
The estimated vote comes from the model’s central scenario. The probability is the share of the 5,000 simulations won by each party; it remains experimental and depends on the model’s assumptions.
Show on the interactive map · Read the method · All ridings
Projection of October 1, 2026 · polls as of October 1 · 5,000 simulations.