RIDING · OCTOBER 5, 2026 ELECTION
Gouin
127QC projection for Gouin as of October 1, 2026: Québec solidaire leads with 40.7% of the estimated vote, ahead of the PQ (29.3%) and the PLQ (17.4%). In the model’s 5,000 simulations, Québec solidaire wins 81% of the time.
LeadingQS
Margin11.4 points
Win probability81%
Poll-based projection. It describes the race today; the October 5 result may differ.
Candidates and estimated support
QS Alexandre Boulerice
40.7%Win: 81%PQ Isabelle Daoust
29.3%Win: 18%PLQ Hoang Annie Nguyen
17.4%Win: < 1%CAQ Frank Tremblay
6.2%Win: < 1%PCQ Edouard Prud'homme
4.5%Win: < 1%The 2022 result
| Party | 2022 | 2026 projection | Change (points) |
|---|---|---|---|
| QS | 59.4 | 40.7 | −18.7 |
| PQ | 13.6 | 29.3 | +15.7 |
| PLQ | 8.4 | 17.4 | +9.0 |
| CAQ | 12.4 | 6.2 | −6.2 |
| PCQ | 3.1 | 4.5 | +1.4 |
Boundaries unchanged in 2026: official 2022 results. Sources: Élections Québec; transposition to the 2026 map by Kyle Hutton (Blunt Objects).
Neighbouring ridings
- Laurier-DorionQS 8.0-pt margin
- MercierQS 14.5-pt margin
How to read these numbers
The estimated vote comes from the model’s central scenario. The probability is the share of the 5,000 simulations won by each party; it remains experimental and depends on the model’s assumptions.
Show on the interactive map · Read the method · All ridings
Projection of October 1, 2026 · polls as of October 1 · 5,000 simulations.