RIDING · OCTOBER 5, 2026 ELECTION
Mercier
127QC projection for Mercier as of October 1, 2026: Québec solidaire leads with 40.8% of the estimated vote, ahead of the PQ (26.2%) and the PLQ (21.9%). In the model’s 5,000 simulations, Québec solidaire wins 86% of the time.
LeadingQS
Margin14.5 points
Win probability86%
Poll-based projection. It describes the race today; the October 5 result may differ.
Candidates and estimated support
QS Ruba Ghazal incumbent
40.8%Win: 86%PQ Phoudsady Vanny
26.2%Win: 11%PLQ Thierno Diallo
21.9%Win: 3%CAQ Kelly-Anne Gagné
5.0%Win: < 1%PCQ François Plamondon
4.4%Win: < 1%The 2022 result
| Party | 2022 | 2026 projection | Change (points) |
|---|---|---|---|
| QS | 53.9 | 40.8 | −13.2 |
| PQ | 14.6 | 26.2 | +11.7 |
| PLQ | 14.0 | 21.9 | +7.9 |
| CAQ | 10.3 | 5.0 | −5.3 |
| PCQ | 3.8 | 4.4 | +0.5 |
Boundaries unchanged in 2026: official 2022 results. Sources: Élections Québec; transposition to the 2026 map by Kyle Hutton (Blunt Objects).
Neighbouring ridings
- GouinQS 11.4-pt margin
How to read these numbers
The estimated vote comes from the model’s central scenario. The probability is the share of the 5,000 simulations won by each party; it remains experimental and depends on the model’s assumptions.
Show on the interactive map · Read the method · All ridings
Projection of October 1, 2026 · polls as of October 1 · 5,000 simulations.