RIDING · OCTOBER 5, 2026 ELECTION
D'Arcy-McGee
127QC projection for D'Arcy-McGee as of October 1, 2026: the PLQ leads with 60.8% of the estimated vote, ahead of the PCQ (18.0%) and the PQ (9.1%). In the model’s 5,000 simulations, the PLQ wins > 99% of the time.
LeadingPLQ
Margin42.9 points
Win probability> 99%
Poll-based projection. It describes the race today; the October 5 result may differ.
Candidates and estimated support
PLQ Elisabeth Prass incumbent
60.8%Win: > 99%PCQ Adrien Pouliot
18.0%Win: < 1%PQ Maïté Larouche
9.1%Win: < 1%QS Lucian Costin
3.7%Win: < 1%CAQ Junlian Leblanc
3.5%Win: < 1%The 2022 result
| Party | 2022 | 2026 projection | Change (points) |
|---|---|---|---|
| PLQ | 51.4 | 60.8 | +9.4 |
| PCQ | 21.9 | 18.0 | −4.0 |
| PQ | 2.5 | 9.1 | +6.6 |
| QS | 8.5 | 3.7 | −4.8 |
| CAQ | 5.9 | 3.5 | −2.4 |
Boundaries unchanged in 2026: official 2022 results. Sources: Élections Québec; transposition to the 2026 map by Kyle Hutton (Blunt Objects).
Neighbouring ridings
- MarquettePLQ 43.7-pt margin
- Mont-Royal–OutremontPLQ 30.7-pt margin
- Notre-Dame-de-GrâcePLQ 49.1-pt margin
How to read these numbers
The estimated vote comes from the model’s central scenario. The probability is the share of the 5,000 simulations won by each party; it remains experimental and depends on the model’s assumptions.
Show on the interactive map · Read the method · All ridings
Projection of October 1, 2026 · polls as of October 1 · 5,000 simulations.