RIDING · OCTOBER 5, 2026 ELECTION
Notre-Dame-de-Grâce
127QC projection for Notre-Dame-de-Grâce as of October 1, 2026: the PLQ leads with 61.2% of the estimated vote, ahead of the PQ (12.1%) and Québec solidaire (8.5%). In the model’s 5,000 simulations, the PLQ wins > 99% of the time.
LeadingPLQ
Margin49.1 points
Win probability> 99%
Poll-based projection. It describes the race today; the October 5 result may differ.
Candidates and estimated support
PLQ Désirée McGraw incumbent
61.2%Win: > 99%PQ Vincent Hubert
12.1%Win: < 1%QS Élise Davignon
8.5%Win: < 1%PCQ Guillaume St-Pierre
7.2%Win: < 1%CAQ Kaan Altintas
3.8%Win: < 1%The 2022 result
| Party | 2022 | 2026 projection | Change (points) |
|---|---|---|---|
| PLQ | 50.5 | 61.2 | +10.8 |
| PQ | 5.1 | 12.1 | +7.0 |
| QS | 15.5 | 8.5 | −7.0 |
| PCQ | 8.2 | 7.2 | −0.9 |
| CAQ | 7.3 | 3.8 | −3.5 |
Boundaries unchanged in 2026: official 2022 results. Sources: Élections Québec; transposition to the 2026 map by Kyle Hutton (Blunt Objects).
Neighbouring ridings
- D'Arcy-McGeePLQ 42.9-pt margin
- MarquettePLQ 43.7-pt margin
- Saint-Henri–Sainte-AnnePLQ 22.7-pt margin
- Westmount–Saint-LouisPLQ 48.1-pt margin
How to read these numbers
The estimated vote comes from the model’s central scenario. The probability is the share of the 5,000 simulations won by each party; it remains experimental and depends on the model’s assumptions.
Show on the interactive map · Read the method · All ridings
Projection of October 1, 2026 · polls as of October 1 · 5,000 simulations.