RIDING · OCTOBER 5, 2026 ELECTION
Marquette
127QC projection for Marquette as of October 1, 2026: the PLQ leads with 60.5% of the estimated vote, ahead of the PQ (16.8%) and the PCQ (8.7%). In the model’s 5,000 simulations, the PLQ wins > 99% of the time.
LeadingPLQ
Margin43.7 points
Win probability> 99%
Poll-based projection. It describes the race today; the October 5 result may differ.
Candidates and estimated support
PLQ Enrico Ciccone incumbent
60.5%Win: > 99%PQ Guillaume de Palma-Demers
16.8%Win: < 1%PCQ Richard Zilversmit
8.7%Win: < 1%CAQ Mahsa Barani
6.5%Win: < 1%QS Pascal Malo
6.0%Win: < 1%The 2022 result
| Party | 2022 | 2026 projection | Change (points) |
|---|---|---|---|
| PLQ | 46.7 | 60.5 | +13.8 |
| PQ | 8.1 | 16.8 | +8.7 |
| PCQ | 9.1 | 8.7 | −0.4 |
| CAQ | 21.8 | 6.5 | −15.3 |
| QS | 11.3 | 6.0 | −5.2 |
Boundaries unchanged in 2026: official 2022 results. Sources: Élections Québec; transposition to the 2026 map by Kyle Hutton (Blunt Objects).
Neighbouring ridings
- D'Arcy-McGeePLQ 42.9-pt margin
- Jacques-CartierPLQ 62.0-pt margin
- Marguerite-BourgeoysPLQ 40.2-pt margin
- Notre-Dame-de-GrâcePLQ 49.1-pt margin
- Saint-LaurentPLQ 44.9-pt margin
How to read these numbers
The estimated vote comes from the model’s central scenario. The probability is the share of the 5,000 simulations won by each party; it remains experimental and depends on the model’s assumptions.
Show on the interactive map · Read the method · All ridings
Projection of October 1, 2026 · polls as of October 1 · 5,000 simulations.