RIDING · OCTOBER 5, 2026 ELECTION
Marguerite-Bourgeoys
127QC projection for Marguerite-Bourgeoys as of October 1, 2026: the PLQ leads with 56.9% of the estimated vote, ahead of the PQ (16.6%) and the PCQ (11.2%). In the model’s 5,000 simulations, the PLQ wins > 99% of the time.
LeadingPLQ
Margin40.2 points
Win probability> 99%
Poll-based projection. It describes the race today; the October 5 result may differ.
Candidates and estimated support
PLQ Michel Leblanc
56.9%Win: > 99%PQ Luc Côté
16.6%Win: < 1%PCQ Sean Ross
11.2%Win: < 1%CAQ Adam Ahmad
7.5%Win: < 1%QS Bryan Gingras
5.7%Win: < 1%The 2022 result
| Party | 2022 | 2026 projection | Change (points) |
|---|---|---|---|
| PLQ | 44.8 | 56.9 | +12.1 |
| PQ | 7.0 | 16.6 | +9.7 |
| PCQ | 11.0 | 11.2 | +0.2 |
| CAQ | 23.2 | 7.5 | −15.6 |
| QS | 10.3 | 5.7 | −4.6 |
Boundaries unchanged in 2026: official 2022 results. Sources: Élections Québec; transposition to the 2026 map by Kyle Hutton (Blunt Objects).
Neighbouring ridings
- MarquettePLQ 43.7-pt margin
- Saint-Henri–Sainte-AnnePLQ 22.7-pt margin
How to read these numbers
The estimated vote comes from the model’s central scenario. The probability is the share of the 5,000 simulations won by each party; it remains experimental and depends on the model’s assumptions.
Show on the interactive map · Read the method · All ridings
Projection of October 1, 2026 · polls as of October 1 · 5,000 simulations.