RIDING · OCTOBER 5, 2026 ELECTION
Fabre
127QC projection for Fabre as of October 1, 2026: the PLQ leads with 43.7% of the estimated vote, ahead of the PQ (20.7%) and the PCQ (15.5%). In the model’s 5,000 simulations, the PLQ wins 98% of the time.
LeadingPLQ
Margin23.0 points
Win probability98%
Poll-based projection. It describes the race today; the October 5 result may differ.
Candidates and estimated support
PLQ Marie Claude Fournier
43.7%Win: 98%PQ Catherine Dansereau-Redhead
20.7%Win: 1%PCQ Stéphane Turmel
15.5%Win: < 1%CAQ Lucie Létourneau
13.3%Win: 1%QS Josée Chevalier
6.6%Win: < 1%The 2022 result
| Party | 2022 | 2026 projection | Change (points) |
|---|---|---|---|
| PLQ | 30.9 | 43.7 | +12.8 |
| PQ | 9.8 | 20.7 | +10.9 |
| PCQ | 15.2 | 15.5 | +0.3 |
| CAQ | 31.8 | 13.3 | −18.5 |
| QS | 11.1 | 6.6 | −4.6 |
Boundaries unchanged in 2026: official 2022 results. Sources: Élections Québec; transposition to the 2026 map by Kyle Hutton (Blunt Objects).
Neighbouring ridings
- ChomedeyPLQ 28.9-pt margin
- Deux-MontagnesPQ 6.5-pt margin
- NelliganPLQ 51.2-pt margin
- Robert-BaldwinPLQ 54.3-pt margin
How to read these numbers
The estimated vote comes from the model’s central scenario. The probability is the share of the 5,000 simulations won by each party; it remains experimental and depends on the model’s assumptions.
Show on the interactive map · Read the method · All ridings
Projection of October 1, 2026 · polls as of October 1 · 5,000 simulations.